|FIGURE 1: Chart for all major regions in England|
|FIGURE 2: Comparison of different authority districts in the North East of England|
|FIGURE 3: Map showing COVID-19 cumulative cases by major authority districts in England|
- how the environment-ecology of an area facilitates or hinders the spread of a disease (rural, urban, suburban, etc).
- how various social determinants influence a disease's impact, including inequality, population density, access to public health resources, racism and discrimination and also social deprivation -- as modelled, for example, by various multiple deprivation indices (Figure 4 below).
- the capacity for a particular place to respond to a public health crisis, as in the case of access to the resources needed for dealing with COVID-19, from critical supplies needed for hospitals and care homes to plans for social distancing and businesses reopening to managing the mental health aspects of sheltering people in place.
These, then, are my general recommendations -- and ones my colleagues in the COVID-19 Community Health and Social Care Modelling Team would agree with. Again, we do not pretend to have the only or best answer to the current situation; and, despite the need for regional modelling, we still support the importance of national level modelling and a national strategy. But, to reiterate our point, if we are to take the next step in this worldwide modelling challenge, we need a more diverse set of models that are more sensitive to and emerge out of not just the national, but also the local and the complexities of its socio-ecological context. Looking to the near future, such a modelling-public-policy dashboard is most likely to become even more important, as COVID-19 is probably the first in a series of global social and health problems we are about to face.
About the Durham COVID-19 Modelling team
The COVID-19 Community Health and Social Care Modelling Team is
under the guidance of our respective Executive Deans, Jacqui Ramagge
(Science) and Charlotte Clarke (Social Sciences and Health) as part of
the contribution of the Wolfson Research Institute for Health and Wellbeing and the Institute of Data Sciences to the University’s
Health@Durham strategy, as well as supported by the Research and Innovation Services, Marketing and Communications and CECAN (Centre for the study of Complexity Across the Nexus). The team is led by Dr Camila Caiado and Professor Brian Castellani, with the purpose of creating a
series of tools and dashboards that Trusts and Councils can use to help
support decision and planning accordingly. We would also like to
acknowledge the outstanding contribution of Dr Jennifer Badham, Dr Peter Barbrook-Johnson, Professor Amanda Ellison, Dr Andrew Iskauskas, Dr Rachel Oughton, Dr Corey Schimpf and Dr