CECAN Webinar (July 2021) Case-based modelling and scenario simulation for ex-post evaluation -- Further adventures with COMPLEX-IT

The following documents and links are in support of the CECAN Webinar (July 2021) run by Corey Schimpf, Peter Barbrook-Johnson and myself.

We focused on how to use the scenario simulation tab in COMPLEX-IT. It was titled, appropriately enough:Case-based modelling and scenario simulation for ex-post evaluation -- Further adventures with COMPLEX-IT

To begin, we would like to thank CECAN and our respective universities and methods centres: CECAN, University at Buffalo (The State University of New York), Oxford University, and the Durham Research Methods Centre. 


Our presentation is based on a recent paper we published:

Despite 20 years of increasing acceptance, implementing complexity-appropriate methods for expost evaluation remains a challenge: instead of focusing on complex interventions, methods need to help evaluators better explore how policies (no matter how simple) take place in real-world, open, dynamic systems where many intertwined factors about the cases being targeted affect outcomes in numerous ways. To assist in this advance, we developed case-based scenario simulation, a new visually intuitive evaluation tool grounded in a data-driven, case-based, computational modelling approach, which evaluators can use to explore counterfactuals, status-quo trends, and what-if scenarios for some potential set of real or imagined interventions. To demonstrate the value and versatility of case-based scenario simulation we explore four published evaluations that differ in design (cross sectional, longitudinal, and experimental) and purpose (learning or accountability), and present a prospective view of how case-based scenario simulation could support and enhance evaluators’ efforts in these complex contexts.


  • CLICK HERE for the YOUTUBE VIDEO of our presentation